Tuesday, September 23, 2008

The surprises are just about over – it’ll be USC and Oklahoma

By Brian Wisowaty

Has the 2008 college football season begun to lose its luster?

The feel-good story of my last post, East Carolina, seems to be no more. A dramatic 30-24 defeat in overtime at North Carolina State bumped the Pirates all the way out of the USA Today poll. Seemingly, a pretty harsh response to the team’s first loss of the season.

Now the eyes of the nation can shift to Brigham Young, the No. 11 team in both the AP Top 25 and USA Today poll. That victory for the Cougars over Washington on the heels of Jake Locker’s “excessive celebration” (and I use that term loosely) is now key as BYU preps for Utah State, New Mexico, and TCU in October.
In other words, we’re left with a BYU team that, at best, is questionably undefeated at this point.

Meanwhile, on the national title hunt, an injury and conference quality has almost trimmed the “legitimate contender” field down to two or three. Consider Ohio State, the clear class of the Big Ten. While that matchup at Southern California two weeks back would have been difficult no matter what, the loss of Chris Wells at halfback for the game made it a blowout.



Moving up and down the AP’s top ten teams, it can only be expected for LSU and Alabama to find out the hard way that the SEC is the toughest conference in the land. As happens every year, these teams will catch a hungry rival this fall, probably on the road, and get beat for the first time. In fact, it nearly happened to the Tigers the past week, just escaping Auburn with the 26-21 win.

I’m also not a big believer in the back end of that top ten, Wisconsin (No. 9) and Texas Tech (No. 10). The Red Raiders can score a ton, but do not belong defensively on the same field as many of the programs in front of them in the polls. And, the Badgers have not played anyone yet. Let’s see them get past back-to-back home contests versus Ohio State and Penn State in early October without a loss.

We are then left with the top tier of a few select programs and the teams chasing them.

Can Missouri stay on the field and compete with Oklahoma?

Will Texas be able to take their annual meeting with the Sooners in the Red River Rivalry game?

Again, I stand by the Sooners explosive offense and physical defense. The answer to both those questions: a resounding no.

Moving forward, can Georgia and Florida run the table in the SEC?

I really don’t think anyone can survive the overall top-to-bottom talent in that league. Florida is very good, but Miami (FL) proved that an effective blitz scheme can stop Tim Tebow in his tracks for a bit. The Gators can be beat. I’d go out on a limb and say it will be Georgia getting it done against the Gators with their November 1 matchup “between in hedges” in Athens.



In regards to the Bulldogs, the SEC Title game can be what hurts their national title hopes most. It’s a tough spot, especially if Georgia goes in undefeated against a one-loss, angry conference foe trying to play spoiler. Nonetheless, prior to postseason play, I’d keep an eye out for Bulldogs’ November 15 game at Auburn as a legit chance for a regular season loss. We’ll learn a lot about Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and company on that day. I’m not confident enough in the Tigers that late in the season to call the upset, but it will be close no matter what.

That leaves the Trojans all alone at the top. Enjoy the Pac 10, no conference title game, and talent far better than Oregon has. They will cruise to the BCS Championship Game.

The Sooners will also have enough to join them there. No national title “BCS-busters” this year. For better or for worse, a big element of this college football season is simply waiting for the SEC to catch up with Georgia and Florida, respectively.



The opinions mentioned here are solely those of the author of this post and are not shared by other posters on this site or the site creator

No comments: